This week’s data marks a return to ambiguities we last saw in April and May. For the first time, we saw week-over-week testing numbers fall—and this decline makes drops in new COVID-19 case numbers difficult to interpret. Deaths continued their steady rise. And new complications like technical glitches and school reopenings threaten to cloud the picture even further.
Florida has reported over 461,000 total COVID-19 cases, surpassing New York for the highest per-capita caseload in the United States—but a simple comparison doesn’t represent the critical differences in the data we have for the two outbreaks.
States across the US use two primary methods for announcing COVID-19 deaths: date of death (reported) and date of death (actual). To analyze how the pandemic is trending across the country, understanding the relationship between these two data points is crucial. Here's what we've learned from investigating both methods in three of our largest hotspots: Arizona, Florida, and Texas.
This week’s data brings the first good news in several weeks: new cases of COVID-19 are declining nationally, thanks to substantial declines in reported cases by states with major outbreaks. Deaths, which lag cases, continue to rise. And hospital data is still unreliable for the second week in a row.
Data for current COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States—one of our most valuable metrics for understanding the pandemic and its effects—has become highly erratic in recent weeks. Here's what we've learned from watching the data closely, and from our initial analysis of the hospitalization data being published by the federal government.
The rise in new cases is slowing, but so is testing growth. Hospitalization data was highly erratic this week, but what we did see is alarming. Deaths are rising three weeks behind cases, which suggests a very difficult few weeks ahead for the United States.